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MAP UPDATED AT 7:45 PM BASED ON LATEST DATA

Another messy system is set to move across Southern Ontario on Friday, with the main focus this time shifting toward Central and Eastern Ontario. Widespread snowfall is expected to develop early Friday afternoon and continue into the evening hours, with general totals in the 10 to 15 cm range by the time it wraps up.

While these snowfall amounts are not extreme for mid-winter, they are certainly enough to create difficult travel conditions, especially during the afternoon commute. Roads could become snow-covered quickly, and visibility may be reduced at times as snowfall rates pick up.

When it comes to school bus cancellations, the timing of this event makes the forecast a little less straightforward. Most of the accumulating snow is expected to begin late in the morning or early in the afternoon, which means the morning bus run may occur before conditions significantly deteriorate.

Environment Canada has issued a special weather statement for parts of Central and Eastern Ontario, highlighting the potential for up to 10 cm of snow beginning late morning or early afternoon. That amount sits right near the threshold where many school boards begin to consider cancellations. However, without a formal snowfall warning in place, some boards may hesitate to act proactively.

Because of this, the presence or absence of upgraded alerts by Friday morning will likely play a major role in decision-making. If the special weather statement is upgraded to a snowfall warning before buses hit the road, the probability of cancellations would increase considerably.

For now, we are placing the more rural and historically proactive boards into the toss-up category with a 50 percent chance. This includes Peterborough County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, North & Central Hastings, North & Central Lennox and Addington, and North, Central & South Frontenac under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, as well as the Madawaska region under the Renfrew County District School Board. These areas rely heavily on rural routes and are more likely to cancel in anticipation of worsening afternoon conditions.

Surrounding regions carry a slightly lower probability at 25 percent. This includes all regions under Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Northumberland County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, the rest of Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, the Upper Canada District School Board, the remainder of the Renfrew County District School Board.

In these areas, snowfall is expected, but the timing may allow for buses to run in the morning before conditions decline. We are leaning toward a normal school day for most of these boards, but a few may choose to cancel proactively based on forecast conditions and the active special weather statement.

We’ve also given a slight chance to Dufferin County under the Upper Grand District School Board. This is due to the possibility of freezing rain in higher elevation areas with slightly colder temperatures than the surrounding areas.

Farther west, we have assigned a widespread low chance, around 10 percent, for rural school boards in Southwestern Ontario. Some patchy fog may develop overnight and linger into Friday morning, which could reduce visibility on exposed rural roads. However, current indications suggest fog will not be as widespread or as dense as on previous mornings, keeping confidence too low to go higher than a low chance.

There is also a low chance for areas around Lake Simcoe, as there might be some icy conditions if temperatures are slightly colder than expected.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.