‘Snow (Ice/Fog) Day’ Forecast: Persistent Freezing Drizzle Could Prompt Another Day of School Bus Cancellations in Southern Ontario on Thursday
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As expected, Wednesday’s high-impact winter storm led to widespread school bus cancellations and even a handful of full school closures across Southern Ontario.
A messy mix of freezing rain, snow and ice pellets created hazardous travel conditions through much of the day, particularly across Southwestern Ontario and into parts of the Golden Horseshoe where icing was the dominant concern.
While the bulk of the steady precipitation has tapered off as we head into Wednesday evening, the story is not quite over yet.
An area of patchy freezing drizzle continues to linger across portions of Southwestern Ontario and around the Golden Horseshoe. With temperatures holding below freezing in many communities, that drizzle is freezing on contact, adding a fresh glaze of ice to untreated roads, sidewalks and driveways.
Even a thin layer of additional ice accretion can quickly undo progress made by road crews earlier in the day, especially along rural routes and backroads.
This freezing drizzle is expected to persist through much of the overnight and may not fully taper off until early Thursday morning. That means icy patches are likely to remain a concern for the morning commute, particularly outside of the major urban centres.
At the same time, areas that rise slightly above freezing overnight, including Deep Southwestern Ontario and regions near Lake Huron and Lake Erie, are likely to see the development of thick fog. In some locations, visibility could be reduced significantly during the pre-dawn and early morning hours. While fog does not always lead to cancellations, it has triggered bus delays or localized cancellations in more rural school boards in the past.
Because of this combination of freezing drizzle and fog, there is a realistic chance that some school boards opt to cancel buses on Thursday, or at a minimum, delayed service during the morning when visibility is at its worst.
The highest probability for bus cancellations is focused in the higher elevations of Southwestern Ontario and other rural areas where freezing drizzle is expected to have the greatest impact. This includes Wellington and Dufferin counties under the Upper Grand District School Board, Hanover, Meaford, Owen Sound and the Bruce Peninsula under the Bluewater District School Board, and Perth County under the Avon Maitland District School Board.
These regions rely heavily on rural bus routes, many of which are more difficult to treat quickly during light icing events. While there is a good chance of cancellations here, there is still uncertainty regarding how widespread and persistent the freezing drizzle will be. For that reason, we are capping these areas at a 50 percent chance. It truly could go either way, depending on local road conditions by morning.
A broader swath of Southwestern Ontario extending into portions of Central Ontario carries a slight 25 percent chance of cancellations. This includes the West, Central and South weather zones under the Simcoe County District School Board, Northern Peel Region under the Peel District School Board, Northern Halton Region under the Halton District School Board, Guelph under the Upper Grand District School Board, the Waterloo Region District School Board, the Grand Erie District School Board, and Oxford County under the Thames Valley District School Board.
These regions are also expecting some freezing drizzle overnight, but many of these boards cover more urban routes or have shown a higher threshold for cancellation decisions this season. While slick conditions are possible, it remains uncertain whether they will be widespread enough to justify cancellations.
There is also a separate slight 25 percent chance tied primarily to fog development. This includes Elgin and Middlesex counties under the Thames Valley District School Board, the Lambton Kent District School Board, the Greater Essex County District School Board, Huron County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, and Kincardine and Southampton under the Bluewater District School Board.
Fog-related cancellations are notoriously difficult to forecast, as visibility can vary dramatically over short distances. When fog does become dense enough, however, some rural boards have shown a willingness to cancel buses. Because of that unpredictability, 25 percent is the highest probability we assign to fog-driven events.
Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, the chance of bus cancellations drops to low or very low. We are not expecting the freezing drizzle to be significant enough to prompt cancellations in the urban core of the Greater Toronto Area. However, a low chance remains simply due to localized icy patches.
Similarly, no widespread cancellations are expected across Eastern Ontario or northern sections of Central Ontario, where precipitation has largely ended, and conditions should steadily improve overnight.
Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.
It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.
