Isolated Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Thursday with Damaging Wind Gusts and Hail Possible

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After an extended period of dry conditions across Southern Alberta, aside from the odd pop-up shower or non-severe thunderstorm, we’re finally seeing that pattern change. More widespread rain finally returned to the region yesterday, which has continued into this morning. This afternoon, we can also expect to see the return of severe thunderstorms.

Thunderstorm activity is expected to kick off in the early afternoon, around 12-2pm, in the Foothills and northward, to the east of the Rockies. These storms will start off as isolated cells, but they could merge into larger clusters of storms as they gradually track northeastward through the afternoon.

Additional storms will follow in the evening, extending further south towards the US border. These storms could maintain their strength, if conditions remain favourable, as they end up tracking eastward across Southern Alberta overnight and into tomorrow morning. Otherwise, the region could just experience some moderate to heavy rainfall instead.

The greatest thunderstorm risk will be in the Southwest, stretching from Calgary southward to the US border and east through Taber. This region could see damaging wind gusts of up to 100km/h and large nickel to quarter-sized hail, along with torrential downpours. At this point, the threat of a tornado appears to be unlikely, but it can not be completely ruled out.

Fire danger map for June 12th produced by the government of Alberta

With the return of some rain, we’re also seeing a downtrend in the fire danger in Central and Southern Alberta. The arrival of more rain today, despite the presence of some lightning, will likely lead a continued decrease in the fire danger in Southern Alberta. The lightning could still spark additional fires in areas where the fire danger remains elevated so it’s important to watch for any new fire activity and to report it immediately if you see smoke.